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<DIV>The determination of "acceptable" level of risk from a particular hazard is
one of the most difficult parameters for public agencies to determine and
explain to the public.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Let's diverge from pesticide and disease-related issues for a moment in a
hypothetical situation:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Smithville has 10 cases of severe child abuse in 2000. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>A spokesperson for the Police Department states in a press release: "The
frequency of severe child abuse in Smithville is too high. We intend to
reduce the number of cases of severe child abuse over the next year."</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Because of effective policing and public information, the number of cases
is reduced to 2 in 2001, a significant improvement in one year.
However, the effort required significant additional resources from the budget of
the Smithville Police Department. If any additional resources are diverted to
the child abuse effort, it will impact the efficacy of other Department
programs.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION - In 2002, will the Smithville Police Dept.
announce:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>A. "The police department has murderers to catch, which is much
more important than child abuse."</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>B: "We have reached an acceptable level of child abuse in
Smithville." </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>C: "We have reduced child abuse in Smithville and the Police Dept.
intends to try to do the best job we can to further reduce child abuse in our
community."</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I doubt that anyone would make statement "A" or "B" (and still keep his or
her job). However, in the real world, one must balance resources against
relative risks, particularly when the risk from a particular
agent starts to decline due to previously implemented control
measures. Where to draw the line for allocation of resources is a tough
decision and explaining it to the public is also difficult.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>L Haramis</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BODY></HTML>
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Received on Mon Jan 14 16:15:57 2002
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