(no subject)

8 Aug 2002 14:35:15 -0400 (EDT)@
Date: Thu, 08 Aug 2002 14:35:42 -0400
Subject: Re: Comment on Newsday article
To: dduffy@hawaii.edu
Cc: gochfeld@eohsi.rutgers.edu, JoeParrish@compuserve.com,owner-WESTNILEVIRUS-L@cornell.edu, WESTNILEVIRUS-L@cornell.edu (WESTNILEVIRUS-L)
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"3. bird spread: we would see little or no westward spread this year
but more next year as wintering birds mix in Central and South America
and then the virus returns north along different flyways with widespread
cases
occurring in new states.

This is oversimplified but might be useful for thinking about
surveillance.--D. Duffy"
--------------------------------------------------

We submitted a paper to the CDC's Emerging Infectous Diseases that show
the results of a model (GARP) that looks at the distribution of both
mosquitos AND birds. The results from the model predict almost exactly
what the current distribution of WNV looks like. If anyone would like
additional information, please contact me. The WNV paper has not been
published yet, but an article in the July issue uses the same modeling
technique to predict the spread of Chagas disease (Vol 8, No. 7).

Jim
James K. Andreasen, Ph.D.
US Environmental Protection Agency
ORD/NCEA (8623-D)
1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20460

Phone: 202-564-3293
     fax: 202-565-0076
 email: andreasen.james@.epa.gov

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Received on Thu Aug 08 19:19:44 2002