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Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002
Posted by: Michael Gochfeld (gochfeld@eohsi.rutgers.edu)

Richard Lampman raises important questions about uncertainty and risk. When we do risk assessments for almost anything there are uncertainties. Indeed the field of Risk Analysis has recently focused much of its attention on uncertainties, per se, how to estimate the magnitude or impact of uncertainties on the risk estimates, how to reduce uncertainties, and most challengingly, how to communicate them.

My comparison of press coverage of WNV in 1999 vs Anthrax in 2001 indicates that the media got WNV very wrong in 1999 (not reflecting adequately the changing scientific "knowledge") while it got Anthrax beautifully, accurately capturing the misinformation and confusion among scientists and public health experts.

Uncertainties can be crudely classified into:
LACK OF KNOWLEDGE (uncertainty will be reduced when more information is available)
INTRINSIC INDETERMINACY (the situation is intrinsically chaotic so that predictability is limited)
STATISTICAL UNCERTAINTY (errors in estimation of the parameters, also reducible with more data)

I also focus attention on communication uncertainty, which is introduced in the transmission of information or knowledge. It's like the parlor game where a message is whispered to one person and then becomes corrupted as it is transmitted down a line of people.

MICHAEL GOCHFELD

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