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Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002
Posted by: Environmental Risk Analysis Program (envrisk@cornell.edu)

[Forwarded from Jose-Luis Sagripanti:]

The PROMED Virus diseases Moderator referred me to you in the hope that perhaps you could answer the following question:

Approximately how many infected mosquitoes were needed to establish the WN epidemic in the USA?.

Theoretically, one very lucky mosquitoes could survive a thousand miles trip, quickly adapt and survive different climatic and geographical conditions in New York where it was not previously endemic, reach and identify new hosts without being eaten or otherwise killed, and establish a highly successful epidemic of WN across US.

In reality the chances for a single mosquitoes surviving that chain of events could be assessed and, therefore, a minimum number of infected mosquitoes statistically necessary to leave at least one survivor to succeed in establishing a WN epidemics in the US could be estimated. I suspect that the climate and environment encountered by WN virus in the US would require a higher number of infected vectors to establish an epidemics in New York than in the virus's place of origin where virus and vectors had long time to adapt and survive.

Any educated guess in this regard will be appreciated. Thank you.

Jose-Luis Sagripanti, Dr.Sc.
Director, Biosafety Facility
Chief, Microbiology
Scientific Advisor, Biochemistry
SBCCOM, US ARMY

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